BTC live calls

Model predictions for the next BTC candle, logged before the candle opens · BTC 81,572 · updated 2026-10-17 01:00 UTC · refreshes every minute

Next 15-minute candle · 01:00 UTC

▲ UP 53.8%

more confident than 65% of the last 30 days' calls

1h call for this hour: green → agrees

Next 1-hour candle · 01:00 UTC

▲ UP 51.8%

building history

Live track record

Candle	Resolved calls	Right	Most confident 10%	Last 24h	Last 7 days
15m	25	48.0%	0.0% (3)	48.0% (25)	48.0% (25)
1h	6	50.0%	–	50.0% (6)	50.0% (6)

15m calls that agree with the 1h call: 50.0% (16) · disagree: 37.5% (8)

Analyst view · from closed candles at 2026-10-17 01:00 UTC

Bottom line

Neutral for the next 24h: nothing reliable on the chart points clearly one way.

Model's next-candle calls: 15m up 54%, 1h up 52%.

No setup on the chart right now is reliable (held in both periods with z ≥ 3) or a reliable failure.

Key areas (ranked)

Zone	Distance	Reacted ≥1 ATR (vs random line)	Typical move	Score
Above price (resistance)
no zone within 10% that strictly beats random
Below price (support)
no zone within 10% that strictly beats random

Score = points above random of the parts that beat random in both 2017-21 and 2022+ (BTC 1h): 2+ / 3+ levels merged, an unfilled 1h / 4h FVG in the zone, high-volume zone, day / week level (or none), retested within 48h. Only zones whose own mix of these beat random lines in both 2017-21 and 2022+ with z ≥ 3 are shown. Reaction rate = past touches of the same kind of zone that bounced at least 1 ATR before going 1 ATR through it within 24h; typical move = median bounce when it reacted.

More: 5 other setup(s), trend, FVGs and all key levels

Also on the chart (no reliable edge)

▲ 1h · Retest of unfilled bullish FVG · gap 81,476-81,524
no reliable edge 53% vs 52% normal after 24h · 6568 cases since 2017 · z +0.1
▲ 1h · Level zone: bounce from above · 81,548 (Prev day VAL)
no reliable edge 54% vs 52% normal after 24h · 3744 cases since 2017 · z +1.4 (based on Prev day VAL: bounce from above)
▼ 1h · Level zone: rejected from below · 81,811 (Anchored VWAP (from swing low))
no reliable edge 45% vs 48% normal after 24h · 3663 cases since 2017 · z -1.4 (based on Anchored VWAP (from swing low): rejected from below)
▼ 4h · Retest of unfilled bearish FVG · gap 81,816-81,842
no reliable edge 49% vs 48% normal after 24h · 1475 cases since 2017 · z +1.3
▲ 4h · Level zone: bounce from above · 81,000-81,214 (Round $1,000 + Prev day VAL + Prev day POC)
no reliable edge 50% vs 52% normal after 24h · 2967 cases since 2017 · z -0.4 (based on Round $1,000: bounce from above)

1h (last closed candle 10-17 00:00 UTC): trend range / mixed; last structure break: BOS down at swing low 81,688, 9 candle(s) ago; unfilled FVGs within 3%: bullish 81,476-81,524; bearish 81,678-81,684; bearish 81,662-81,868; bullish 80,773-81,755.

4h (last closed candle 10-16 20:00 UTC): trend range / mixed; last structure break: CHoCH up at swing high 82,634, 3 candle(s) ago; unfilled FVGs within 3%: bearish 81,816-81,842; bearish 82,083-83,029; bullish 78,491-80,556.

Key level zone (levels within 0.3% merged)	From price
81,548-81,714 (Prev day VAL + Anchored VWAP (from swing high))	+0.07%	testing now
81,805-82,000 (Anchored VWAP (from swing low) + Round $1,000)	+0.41%	testing now
80,809-81,000 (Prev day low + Round $1,000)	-0.82%
82,241 (Prev day POC)	+0.82%
82,595 (Prev day VAH)	+1.25%
80,394 (Prev week low)	-1.44%
82,941-83,052 (Prev day high + Prev week POC)	+1.75%
77,245 (Prev month POC)	-5.30%

Setups are detected with fixed rules from closed candles. Reliable = moved the expected way more often than normal in both 2017-21 and 2022+, with z ≥ 3 at 24h (each cluster of overlapping events counted once). Usually fails = less often than normal in both periods, z ≤ −3. Edges are a few points — context, not signals.

Recent calls

Candle (UTC)	Size	Call	P(up)	Actual
10-17 01:00	1h	up	51.8%	pending
10-17 01:00	15m	up	53.8%	pending
10-17 00:45	15m	up	52.9%	red	✗
10-17 00:30	15m	down	45.5%	red	✓
10-17 00:15	15m	down	46.0%	red	✓
10-17 00:00	1h	up	50.3%	red	✗
10-17 00:00	15m	down	48.5%	green	✗
10-16 23:45	15m	up	55.2%	red	✗
10-16 23:30	15m	up	52.0%	red	✗
10-16 23:15	15m	down	45.5%	red	✓
10-16 23:00	1h	down	46.2%	red	✓
10-16 23:00	15m	down	48.6%	red	✓
10-16 22:45	15m	down	48.1%	green	✗
10-16 22:30	15m	down	45.7%	red	✓
10-16 22:15	15m	down	44.2%	green	✗
10-16 22:00	1h	down	45.3%	green	✗
10-16 22:00	15m	down	49.8%	green	✗
10-16 21:45	15m	down	49.8%	red	✓
10-16 21:30	15m	up	51.2%	red	✗
10-16 21:15	15m	down	47.0%	green	✗
10-16 21:00	1h	down	43.9%	red	✓
10-16 21:00	15m	down	48.3%	red	✓
10-16 20:45	15m	down	47.5%	green	✗
10-16 20:30	15m	down	44.8%	green	✗
10-16 20:15	15m	down	49.5%	green	✗
10-16 20:00	1h	down	49.9%	green	✗
10-16 20:00	15m	down	46.6%	red	✓
10-16 19:45	15m	up	51.8%	green	✓
10-16 19:30	15m	down	46.3%	red	✓
10-16 19:15	15m	down	44.8%	green	✗
10-16 19:00	1h	up	55.8%	green	✓
10-16 19:00	15m	up	53.3%	green	✓
10-16 18:45	15m	up	53.5%	green	✓

Backtest reference (unseen 2024-26 data): about 53-55% right on every candle, about 58-60% on the most confident 10%. A 50% coin flip is the baseline; short runs swing a lot (±7 points over 200 calls). Decision support only — no trades are placed, and in every test the edge per candle was smaller than trading costs.